We're three weeks into the NFL season, which is right around the time everyone starts pretending they know exactly what every team is.
I don't.
The Raiders are 3-0. The Chargers are 0-3. The Patriots went from the Super Bowl to getting their doors blown off by Jacksonville. Kenneth Walker III is leading the NFL in rushing for the Chiefs. If you told me all of that a month ago, I probably would've asked what year your Madden franchise was in.
Three games is still a tiny sample. There are absolutely teams we're overreacting to right now that will look completely different by November. But we're also far enough into the season that we can't dismiss everything as a weird Week 1 anymore.
Some of this might actually be real.
And if your fantasy team has been just as unpredictable, you're probably not alone. Injuries have already started piling up, and there are a few players actually worth looking at on waivers this week.
The Raiders Are 3-0. Seriously.
This is easily the biggest surprise for me.
Las Vegas won three games all of last season. They've already matched that total before we've reached October.
Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes through three games and suddenly looks completely rejuvenated at 38 years old. Brock Bowers returned from his knee procedure against New Orleans and immediately put up 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. They came back from 11 points down in the second half to beat the Saints 35-27, and the defense forced four fourth-quarter turnovers.
I don't know if I'm ready to call the Raiders a legitimate contender yet. Their first three opponents have combined for one win, and now they're about to play Kansas City, New England, Buffalo and the Rams. We're going to find out very quickly how real this is.
But 3-0 is 3-0.
At some point you have to give them credit. Klint Kubiak has them scoring almost 30 points per game, Cousins looks good and now they have Bowers back. Even if the Raiders eventually come back down to earth, they've already gone from a team I would've happily picked against in survivor to a team I don't really want anything to do with.
That sentence alone tells you how weird this season has been.
Meanwhile, What the Hell Happened to the Patriots?
This is the one I unfortunately care about significantly more.
The Patriots are 1-2 after Jacksonville just beat them 35-6, and I'm officially concerned.
It's not even just that they're losing. Drake Maye looks bad.
Maye has six interceptions and seven total turnovers through three games. Against Jacksonville, he went 14-of-25 for 199 yards with no touchdowns, two interceptions and a lost fumble. The Patriots scored six points against a Jaguars team that they absolutely should have been able to compete with.
The frustrating part is that I don't suddenly think Maye forgot how to play quarterback.
This looks mental.
He's hesitating. He's holding the ball. He's second-guessing throws that he made confidently last season. You can almost see him thinking instead of just playing, and that's a scary place for a quarterback to be.
The good news is that it's fixable. We've already seen him play at a high level in the NFL. This isn't some rookie where we're still wondering if he belongs. He was the MVP runner-up last season and helped take this team to the Super Bowl.
But sheesh.
The Patriots don't need him to be Superman. They need him to stop giving the other team the football and start trusting what he's seeing again. Until that happens, I don't know how you can feel particularly good about where this team is headed.
Kansas City Looks Like Kansas City Again
If there's one thing through three weeks that I actually believe, it's Kansas City.
Patrick Mahomes looks like Mahomes again. He has 812 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions, and the Chiefs are 3-0. Kenneth Walker III has somehow become the perfect running back for this offense and currently leads the entire NFL with 360 rushing yards while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
And the defense is legit.
Kansas City has allowed 50 points through three games. They haven't needed Mahomes to throw for 400 yards every Sunday because they're getting stops and running the football. That's probably the scariest version of the Chiefs.
We've spent the last few years watching Kansas City win games while occasionally looking like they were making everything unnecessarily difficult. Right now they just look complete.
There are plenty of things I'm not sure about after three weeks.
The Chiefs aren't one of them.
I'm Still Not Buying Detroit
The Lions are 2-1, they've scored plenty of points and Jahmyr Gibbs just scored three touchdowns against the Jets.
I'm still not buying them.
Their offense is good enough that they're going to win games. Gibbs is ridiculous, Jared Goff has played well and they're capable of scoring 30 on basically anyone.
The defense is the problem.
Detroit just gave up 24 points to the Jets and nearly blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead. Through three weeks, their defense has consistently given teams opportunities to hang around, and that's not something I trust once the schedule gets harder.
Maybe they prove me wrong. It's Week 3. That's kind of the entire point of this article.
But if we're separating records from what we actually believe, I don't see Detroit as one of the best teams in football right now. The offense will keep them relevant. I just don't think this is going to be a great Lions team.
The Chargers Might Be the Biggest Disappointment
If the Raiders are my biggest positive surprise, the Chargers are probably the biggest disappointment.
They're 0-3.
I did not see that coming.
They just lost 24-16 to Buffalo despite forcing five turnovers. Five! If your defense gives you the football five extra times and you still lose by eight, something has gone horribly wrong.
Justin Herbert has 627 passing yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions through three games. Against Buffalo, he completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards, one touchdown and an interception, and Jim Harbaugh publicly said afterward that Herbert needs to be better.
He's right.
I expected Los Angeles to be one of the better teams in the AFC. Instead, they're sitting at 0-3 in a division where Kansas City and Las Vegas are both undefeated.
There's plenty of season left, but this is exactly why September matters. An 0-3 hole doesn't disappear because we liked your roster in August.
And Then There's Kenneth Walker
Maybe my favorite individual surprise is Kenneth Walker.
Seattle let him walk, Kansas City brought him in, and three weeks later he's leading the NFL in rushing.
Of course he is.
Walker has 360 yards on 65 carries, good for 5.5 yards per attempt, and he's also caught 11 passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns. He's giving Kansas City something they've desperately wanted for years: a legitimate explosive running game next to Mahomes.
This is one of those moves that feels incredibly obvious in hindsight.
Put a talented running back in an offense where defenses spend every snap worrying about Patrick Mahomes and suddenly there are some pretty nice running lanes.
Apparently football isn't that complicated after all.
So What Do We Actually Know?
Probably less than we think.
The Raiders might be real, but we're about to find out. The Patriots might be able to fix Maye, but right now they look awful. Detroit might score enough to make me look stupid. The Chargers have enough talent that an eventual turnaround wouldn't surprise anyone.
That's what makes the first month of the NFL season so much fun.
We spend the entire offseason convincing ourselves that we understand these teams. We do fantasy drafts, survivor pools, futures, power rankings and approximately 700 mock drafts.
Then they actually start playing football and half of it immediately goes to shit.
Three weeks isn't enough for me to completely throw away everything I believed before the season.
It is enough to start asking some questions.
Except Kansas City.
I think those guys might be pretty good.