If you are still alive after two weeks, congratulations. Apparently picking one NFL team to win a football game is much harder than it sounds.
Week 2 gave us another survivor bloodbath. Tampa Bay was the most popular pick of the week and lost at home to Cleveland. Baltimore lost at home to New Orleans. The Chargers lost at home to the Raiders. Three teams that plenty of people felt pretty good about were gone before Sunday night.
San Francisco was one of the few teams that actually made it easy on us, beating Miami 35-13. Seattle rolled Arizona 31-7. Kansas City survived an overtime game against Indianapolis. Carolina quietly beat the hell out of Atlanta, 34-3.
So after two weeks of chaos, we move on to Week 3.
And for the first time this year, there are a few teams I actually feel pretty good about.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
This is going to be the pick for a massive percentage of survivor pools this week, and I completely understand why.
The Chiefs look like the Chiefs again.
After going 6-11 last year, Kansas City is 2-0 and Patrick Mahomes looks healthy. He threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis last week, Travis Kelce went over 100 yards and Kenneth Walker has completely changed what this offense can do.
Now they get Miami.
The Dolphins are 0-2, while Kansas City is sitting as roughly a 10-point favorite on the road. This is probably the most obvious survivor pick on the board.
The question isn't really whether I think Kansas City wins. I do.
The question is whether you want to go down with what could be 40%+ of your pool if something stupid happens.
That has already happened twice this year.
Verdict: The safest pick of the week. Just know you won't be alone.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
If you still have San Francisco available, this is right there with Kansas City for me.
Brock Purdy has looked unbelievable.
He went 20-of-22 for 287 yards and two touchdowns against Miami last week, added another touchdown on the ground and finished with a 149.1 passer rating.
The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first five drives.
Five drives. Five touchdowns.
Now they stay home and get Arizona.
The only thing that makes me slightly nervous is that it's an NFC West game, and division games can get weird. Arizona also already pulled off an upset against the Chargers in Week 1, so I don't think they are completely helpless.
But San Francisco looks like one of the best teams in football through two weeks.
The other consideration is future value. There are going to be other weeks where we want the 49ers.
If you used them last week, obviously this decision has already been made for you. If you didn't, they are absolutely in play.
Verdict: One of my favorite picks this week.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Seattle is interesting.
They are 2-0, they just demolished Arizona 31-7 and their defense looks ridiculous.
And now Sam Darnold is back.
Darnold missed Week 2 with the glute injury, Drew Lock stepped in and Seattle didn't miss a beat. Now Darnold returns against a Washington team that will be without Jayden Daniels.
Washington is turning to Marcus Mariota.
That is a pretty good survivor setup.
The only thing keeping Seattle below Kansas City and San Francisco for me is that they're traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. game. I generally don't love taking road teams in survivor when there are comparable home options available.
But Seattle has also been excellent in these spots under Mike Macdonald, and this defense against Mariota is a matchup I am willing to trust.
Verdict: Very strong option, especially if you've already used San Francisco.
The Dark Horse: Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Alright, hear me out.
Carolina.
Yes, the Carolina Panthers.
I don't think I would have expected to type that sentence three weeks ago either.
But there is something happening here.
Carolina scored 59 points in Week 1 and then followed that up by beating Atlanta 34-3. Bryce Young has six touchdown passes through two games and threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns last week.
More importantly, that defense just held Atlanta to three points.
Now they get Cleveland.
The Browns did knock out a ton of survivor entries by beating Tampa Bay last week, so I understand why people will want absolutely nothing to do with this game.
But that is also exactly why Carolina is interesting.
Almost nobody is going to use them.
Kansas City is going to take a massive portion of the field. San Francisco and Seattle will get plenty of picks too. Carolina is sitting way down the survivor popularity board.
If you are in a massive pool and want to get a little weird, this is the team I would look at.
You also aren't burning Kansas City, San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo or one of the other teams you are almost certainly going to need later.
Am I telling you Carolina is safer than Kansas City?
Absolutely not.
But survivor isn't always about picking the biggest favorite on the board. If Carolina wins while one of the massive favorites loses, you suddenly have a huge advantage over the field.
And I actually think Carolina wins this game.
Verdict: My favorite dark-horse survivor pick of Week 3.
So Who Am I Taking?
If we're strictly talking about surviving this week, Kansas City is the obvious answer.
Kansas City is my safest pick.
San Francisco is right behind them if you still have the 49ers available, and Seattle becomes much more appealing with Darnold back and Daniels out for Washington.
But Carolina is the team I keep coming back to if you want to get away from the crowd.
My Week 3 board:
Safest: Kansas City Love: San Francisco Strong alternative: Seattle Dark horse: Carolina
After watching Tampa Bay, Baltimore and the Chargers send people home last week, I'm not going to pretend anything is automatic.
But if the favorites can't get it done this week, we may not have anybody left by October.
Good luck in Week 3.