NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks: Ravens Lead the Way

Sometimes survivor doesn't need to be complicated.

The Ravens are at home against an 0-3 Titans team and are currently favored by around 11.5 points. The moneyline has Baltimore around -750 depending on where you look, making the Ravens the biggest favorite on the entire Week 4 slate.

I'll take them.

There's an argument for saving Baltimore because they're one of the best teams in football and will almost certainly give us more opportunities later in the season. I understand that argument. I just don't think you need to make this harder than it is.

Tennessee hasn't given us much reason to believe it can go into Baltimore and win this game. The Titans are 0-3, and now they're facing a Ravens team coming off a wild win over Dallas in Brazil.

Baltimore isn't completely healthy. The offensive line took a beating against Dallas, losing centers Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic to significant injuries. Lamar Jackson was also limited at Wednesday's practice with what the team has described as a minor issue.

I'm keeping an eye on Lamar before Sunday because obviously that would change everything if his status suddenly became a legitimate concern. As of Wednesday, though, there isn't much indication that's where this is headed.

Assuming Lamar is playing, Baltimore is my pick.

This also gets into one of the survivor strategies I think people can overthink: saving teams.

Obviously, you should be looking ahead. If two teams have roughly the same chance of winning this week and one has a significantly better future schedule, that's absolutely worth considering. You don't want to mindlessly burn the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Eagles in the first month just because they're good.

But you also don't get a prize for having the Ravens available in Week 14 if you got eliminated in Week 4.

I think the better way to approach it is picking your spots throughout the season. There will probably be a few weeks where you need to accept a little more risk to preserve a great team for later. I'm not convinced this needs to be one of them.

Baltimore has one of the best matchups on the board, they're at home and Tennessee hasn't won a game.

Give me the Ravens.

If you've already used Baltimore, or you really want to preserve them, Minnesota would be my next choice.

The Vikings are 3-0 and get the 0-3 Dolphins at home. They're currently favored by around 10 points, putting them in basically their own tier with Baltimore before you get to the rest of the Week 4 options.

We've already talked plenty about Miami this week.

They weren't exactly an offensive powerhouse to begin with, and now De'Von Achane is done for the season with a torn ACL. The entire offense was built around getting him the football, and Miami now has to figure out how to replace its best offensive player on the fly.

That's a team I want to target in survivor when the opportunity is there.

Minnesota qualifies.

The one thing I'm watching is Justin Jefferson. He suffered an ankle injury last week and didn't practice Wednesday, although he's currently considered day-to-day rather than ruled out.

Would Jefferson missing the game make me a little less comfortable? Of course.

Would it make me pick Miami?

Absolutely not.

The bigger question with Minnesota is future value. There's an argument that this is one of the cleanest spots we're going to get with the Vikings all season, which actually makes using them now pretty attractive if you're trying to preserve Baltimore.

If you're choosing between the two, I'm still taking Baltimore. But I wouldn't feel bad at all submitting Minnesota.

This is where Week 4 becomes much less comfortable.

Seattle is around a touchdown favorite at home against the Chargers and will probably show up on plenty of survivor lists this week. On paper, I understand it. Seattle is 2-1, the Chargers are 0-3 and you're preserving Baltimore and Minnesota for later.

I'm hesitant.

The Chargers have been disappointing, but I don't think they're in the same category as Tennessee or Miami. There's still enough talent on that roster for them to show up and beat a good team, and I don't love risking my survivor entry just because Seattle gives me better future flexibility.

Could Seattle win comfortably? Absolutely.

I just don't think I need to find out.

Buffalo is another option against New England, and unfortunately I don't have a particularly strong argument for trusting the Patriots right now. Drake Maye has struggled badly through three games, and New England just lost 35-6 to Jacksonville.

Still, divisional games make me nervous, and Buffalo doesn't give you nearly the same cushion in the market that Baltimore or Minnesota does.

Then there's Kansas City.

No thanks.

The Chiefs are good. I actually think they're one of the teams we can feel best about through three weeks. Mahomes looks like Mahomes again, Kenneth Walker has been great and the defense is legitimate.

They're also going on the road to play a 3-0 Raiders team in a divisional game.

Why?

If Kansas City were the only decent option this week, we could have the conversation. With Baltimore hosting Tennessee and Minnesota hosting Miami, I don't see any reason to put your season on that game.

And taking Las Vegas against Kansas City would be even crazier. I love what the Raiders have done through three weeks. I'm not trusting my survivor life to them against Mahomes.

We're getting to the point in the season where strategy starts becoming more important.

Some people have already used Baltimore. Others have used Minnesota. Every week that passes removes another team from your board, and eventually you're going to have to make a pick that makes you uncomfortable.

That's survivor.

I just don't think you should voluntarily make yourself uncomfortable when you don't have to.

There will be a time this season when saving an elite team makes sense. Maybe there's a week where the biggest favorite isn't available to you. Maybe your pool has gotten small enough that differentiating from everyone else actually matters. Maybe you've looked ahead and found a spot where taking a 70% team now gives you a massive advantage later.

Those are the spots where we can get a little risky.

Week 4 doesn't need to be one of them.

Baltimore is the biggest favorite on the board, they're playing at home and they're facing an 0-3 Tennessee team. Minnesota isn't far behind and gets an 0-3 Miami team that just lost the centerpiece of its offense.

We've already watched nearly three-quarters of the single-elimination entries on Survive Sunday disappear.

I'm not trying to join them because I got too smart for my own good.

**Week 4 pick: Baltimore Ravens.**

If you've already used them: **Minnesota Vikings.**

Survive and move on.