Falcons and Saints Meet in New Orleans for Monday Night Football

I'm not looking at tonight as a test to see whether Michael Penix's performance against Green Bay was a fluke.

I don't think it was.

Penix completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown in his return, and Atlanta finished with 498 yards of offense. After scoring 17 points per game through the first two weeks, the Falcons put up 35 against Green Bay.

That offense looked different with Penix running it.

Tonight is more about building on that performance. Penix doesn't need to prove that he belongs every time he takes the field, but he does need to show Atlanta can consistently look like the offense we saw last week.

Having Bijan Robinson behind him certainly helps.

Bijan ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay and now has 349 rushing yards through three games. Atlanta is averaging 173 rushing yards per game, second-best in the NFL, and this week's matchup might be even better.

New Orleans will be without Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings in its front seven, while Pete Werner is questionable. That's a lot to lose before facing a running back who just went for nearly 200 yards.

I'm expecting another huge night from Bijan.

Maybe not 194 rushing yards again, but 150-plus total yards is absolutely in play. Atlanta doesn't need to hide Penix or take the game out of his hands, but when your running back is playing like this against a depleted defense, don't make football more complicated than it needs to be.

Feed Bijan and let Penix work off of it.

On the other side, I've been impressed with Tyler Shough.

He's thrown for 917 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. Those aren't numbers you just stumble into, and he's already shown enough that I think New Orleans can feel pretty good about him moving forward.

The next step is pretty obvious: protect the football.

Shough threw two interceptions and lost a fumble against Las Vegas. New Orleans was up 24-13 in the second half and ended up losing by eight. You can't turn it over four times as a team and expect to win consistently in the NFL.

That's the difference between showing that you can play and becoming a quarterback your team completely trusts.

Shough can clearly play.

If he cleans up the turnovers, I think the Saints may have something here.

It helps that he has Chris Olave, who has been excellent through the first three weeks. Olave already has 375 receiving yards and is pretty clearly the player Atlanta should be most worried about in the Saints passing game.

And I think he has a big night.

Atlanta has been excellent against the run, allowing fewer than 50 rushing yards per game, but the pass defense hasn't been nearly as impressive. With Travis Etienne on injured reserve and the Saints' running game already a concern, I expect New Orleans to lean heavily on Shough and Olave.

That doesn't mean completely abandoning Alvin Kamara, but this isn't exactly the Alvin Kamara from five years ago. Against this Atlanta front, I'm not expecting the Saints to line up and consistently win by running between the tackles.

If New Orleans wins tonight, I think Shough is going to have to make plays.

I suppose we have to talk about him.

Kyle Pitts is still here.

We're now deep enough into the Kyle Pitts experience that I refuse to convince myself *this* is finally going to be the year everything comes together. We've been doing that since approximately 2021.

He has talent. He'll make some plays. Maybe he has a good game tonight.

Kyle Pitts also sucks.

There. That's the analysis.

More importantly for Atlanta, Drake London and Bijan give Penix two legitimate weapons he can rely on. London hasn't found the end zone yet this season, but he's already at 274 receiving yards and gives Atlanta a legitimate downfield option if New Orleans starts selling out to stop Bijan.

That's what makes this Falcons offense more interesting with Penix. They don't need one player to carry everything.

Although tonight, Bijan might do it anyway.

There's also a little more behind this game than a normal Week 4 Monday night matchup.

Tonight marks the 20th anniversary commemoration of the Saints' return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina. That 2006 game against Atlanta remains one of the most memorable nights in franchise history, highlighted by Steve Gleason's blocked punt early in the first quarter.

Gleason and Drew Brees are expected to be part of tonight's celebration.

I'm not going to pretend an anniversary ceremony determines who wins a football game. It doesn't.

But home field already matters in this rivalry, and the Superdome should be completely insane tonight.

For a 1-2 Saints team coming off a game it absolutely should have won, I think that matters a little.

I don't feel overwhelmingly confident about it.

Atlanta might actually have the best player on the field tonight in Bijan. Penix looked good last week, and I don't think what we saw against Green Bay was some random one-week performance that's going to disappear.

The Falcons can win this game.

I just like New Orleans at home a little more.

The Saints have something to prove after giving away last week's game. Shough has shown enough through three weeks that I trust the passing offense, and I think Olave has a favorable matchup against an Atlanta defense that has been much easier to attack through the air than on the ground.

The running game worries me. The turnovers worry me even more.

If Shough gives Atlanta two or three extra possessions, the Falcons will probably make New Orleans pay for it.

But if he protects the football, I think the Saints offense does enough.

Atlanta should run the offense through Bijan, and I'm expecting him to clear 150 total yards. Penix should have opportunities off of that, and I'm interested to see whether last week's offensive breakout carries into a second straight game.

This isn't one of those Monday night games where I think one team is clearly better and we're just waiting to see if they take care of business.

It's a divisional game between two 1-2 teams that both have a reason to believe they're better than their records.

Give me the Saints at home.

And if Bijan wants to go for 180 yards while they do it, I'm perfectly fine with that.